Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Probability
26¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$140.00
Liquidity
$15.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 488h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $15.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 488.2h
- 15:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 488h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).