Will Paloma Valencia place 1st in the Antioquia Department?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 17¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on department of antioquia in the first round of this election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Antioquia in the first round of this election — https://registraduria.gov.co).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 10.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.