Will Paloma Valencia place 1st in the Antioquia Department?
Probability
17¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$50.25
Liquidity
$3.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 12h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Antioquia in the first round of this electionTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 17¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 12h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 12 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Antioquia in the first round of this electionTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 11.6h
- 12:23SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 12h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.
Biggest hourly move: -26.5pp at 18:00 (to 10¢).
Show top 8 of 35 hourly moves
- 03:00 · -18.0pp → 18¢
- 02:00 · -19.0pp → 18¢
- 00:00 · -19.5pp → 17¢
- 23:00 · -21.5pp → 17¢
- 21:00 · -19.5pp → 17¢
- 19:00 · -22.5pp → 14¢
- 18:00 · -26.5pp → 10¢
- 17:00 · -20.0pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most votes from the Department of Antioquia in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
presidential electionReason
Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Paloma Valencia place 1st in the Antioquia Department?"?
As of Sat, 30 May 2026 12:23:44 GMT, YES is priced at 17% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.5pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$50.25 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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