The market moved
-2.3ppin 24h · now 12¢
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
Sports · resolves Dec 19 · vol $35.24
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.