SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 19, 2026
Creator

Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

Probability

12¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.7pp

24h Vol

$70.52

Liquidity

$592.07

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.5pp 7d
1007550250
12¢
May 30, 2026, 05:00 UTCJun 6, 2026, 04:51 UTC
updated 04:51:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-06T04-51Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $592 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive
Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 19, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 4699.1h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.7pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.

Biggest hourly move: -23.8pp at Jun 3, 03:00 UTC (to 13¢).

Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
  • Jun 3, 03:00 UTC · -23.8pp → 13¢
  • Jun 3, 02:00 UTC · -15.9pp → 13¢
  • Jun 3, 00:00 UTC · -16.6pp → 13¢
  • Jun 2, 19:00 UTC · -15.9pp → 13¢
  • Jun 2, 07:00 UTC · -22.3pp → 17¢
  • Jun 2, 05:00 UTC · -16.9pp → 17¢
  • Jun 1, 23:00 UTC · -18.1pp → 13¢
  • Jun 1, 20:00 UTC · +20.4pp → 42¢
updated 04:51:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 04:51:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMLB: NL Manager of the Year
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

mlb

Reason

MLB — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?"?

As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 04:51:58 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -7.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 19, 2026 (2026-12-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$70.52 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $376.86. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $592.07. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

12 wallets
Open on Polymarket