Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 10¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.8pp shift. Resolution depends on perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.