Loading shell…
BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2027

Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?

Probability

20¢

1h

+6.6pp

24h

+10.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$450.51

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 14748.1h

    LOW
  • 11:54Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 14748h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -10.4pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -11.1pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 9.3pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 11.8pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -9.7pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -5.8pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 12.2pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 4.6pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -10.6pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -4.2pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.6pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -19.8pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -16.5pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.6pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -19.2pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.6pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve based on Perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (37.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).