The market moved
+0.6ppin 24h · now 40¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
Science · resolves Dec 31 · vol $5.50
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 40¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.6pp shift. Resolution depends on to the number of spacex launches between january 1, 2026, 12:00am et and december 31, 2026, 11:59pm et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET — https://www.spacex.com/launches.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.