Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
Probability
33¢
1h
-0.6pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$142.14
Liquidity
$1.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.4h
- 15:38SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 32¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 32¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 32¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 32¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 32¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 32¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 33¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).