Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 23¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 19.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the minimum arctic sea ice extent for all days between august 1, 2026 and october 1, 2026, as published by the nation — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the Nation — https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.