Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

1. 1

   Up 2pp over 24h

   Now 41¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 3801h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $3.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.