Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 44¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on treasury department — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Treasury Department — https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.