Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?
Probability
37¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 37¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 38.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.6h
- 17:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.5pp at 2d ago (to 34¢).
Show all 12 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:23 · -3.5pp → 36¢
- 15:00 · -3.0pp → 37¢
- 12:00 · +3.0pp → 38¢
- 18:00 · -3.5pp → 36¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt reaches the listed value this year at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Treasury DepartmentOfficial government sourceextracted · hightreasurydirect.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (38.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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