Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 47¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 37.5pp shift. Resolution depends on department of elections — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Elections — https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.