Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 29¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.