Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $6.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.