The market moved
-0.1ppin 24h · now 2¢
Will Trump deport less than 200k people?
Politics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $9.06
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on annual report — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Annual Report — https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.