Will Trump deport less than 200k people?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$15.00
Liquidity
$25.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6000.2h
- 23:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6000h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:48PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 3¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 3¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 3¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 3¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 3¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 3¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 3¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 3¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 3¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 3¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 3¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 3¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 3¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 3¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number of non citizens removed by UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).