Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 6¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on silver bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between april 28 and may 31, 2026 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026 — https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.