Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May?
Probability
48¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$28.10
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarySilver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 92.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarySilver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 718.1h
- 01:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.
Biggest hourly move: +34.5pp at 11:00 (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 01:00 · +33.0pp → 50¢
- 20:00 · +31.5pp → 49¢
- 19:00 · +32.0pp → 49¢
- 17:00 · +32.0pp → 49¢
- 15:00 · +32.5pp → 49¢
- 14:00 · +33.0pp → 49¢
- 13:00 · +32.0pp → 48¢
- 11:00 · +34.5pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for May 31 is not published by June 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.