The market moved

+0.0ppin 24h · now 19¢

Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters?

Politics · resolves May 19 · vol $338.47

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 19¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.