Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters?
Probability
14¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$338.47
Liquidity
$4.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 15:29SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 15h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
republicanReason
Question text contains "republican" — matched the Politics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters?"?
As of Tue, 19 May 2026 15:29:44 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$338.47 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $338.47. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 13.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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