Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
1 markets in this event family · $269.8K 24h volume · $66.0K liquidity. Share the URL anywhere — the rich preview card shows the cluster's biggest mover with one glance.
$269.8K
1 markets · liq $66.0K
0.1pp
Mean |24h move|
0
Markets ≥5pp 24h
$0.00
0 trades ≥$5k
0
Active UMA dispute / pending
0
Settlement positioning risk
Top mover · 24h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?All markets in this cluster
1| Market | Prob | Δ24h | Vol | Liq |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 3¢ | -0.1 | $269.8K | $66.0K |
About this event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.