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How to read Orrery

A short reader's guide. Read this once and the rest of the site explains itself.

What Orrery is

Orrery is the research and monitoring layer for prediction markets. It is not a broker, not a market maker, and never gives trade recommendations. Each page is built around three questions: what moved, why, and what to track next. Where Orrery cannot answer reliably, it stays silent rather than guess.

The daily loop

Five places, in order. Read it once, then it sits behind everything else.

  1. 1. Home — what changed since your last visit. Scan biggest moves, Resolution Watch, divergences, smart-money flow, today's events.
  2. 2. Signals or Edge Queue — pick a candidate worth a closer look.
  3. 3. Market detail — read the structured “Why did it move?”, the resolution rules, and recent trade flow.
  4. 4. Watch or Alert — capture anything worth tracking.
  5. 5. Daily Brief — return tomorrow morning to the loop, in your inbox.

Signals — three tiers, one screen

Every signal carries three independent labels. Read them as separate signals; do not collapse them into one number.

  • EVIDENCE — how strong the live data is right now. A clear move, confirming volume, aligned trade flow.
  • BACKTEST — how this rule has behaved historically over public CLOB price history. Strong / mixed / weak.
  • ACTION — the recommended next step. Always a verification action: watch, create alert, verify source, compare sibling. Never “buy” or “sell”.

A signal with HIGH evidence and MIXED backtest is a real pattern that has not historically continued. That combination should be a watch, not an action.

Edge Queue — the research worklist

A daily-ranked list of markets where multiple factors line up. Edge Score is transparent — every component is named.

Edge Score =
   strongest live signal evidence  (up to +45)
   + multi-kind agreement bonus    (+6 each, cap +12)
   + log-scaled liquidity          (up to +15)
   + tight-spread factor           (up to +10)
   − resolution-risk penalty       (−10)

The conf column is separate from the score: it tells you how believable the score itself is on this market, given liquidity, spread, and trade-history depth. Treat low-confidence rows as exploratory.

Backtests — what they do and don't prove

A backtest tells you what the rule has done historically on the markets currently visible. That is informative but bounded.

  • What it shows. Win rate at +24h, average move at +1h / +6h / +24h, per-market breakdown — all replayed over public CLOB price history.
  • What it does not include. Spread, slippage, and Polymarket fees. Average move is mid-to-mid.
  • Survivorship. The sample is markets currently live. Markets that already resolved and disappeared are not counted. A persistent snapshot store will close that gap.
  • Small samples. Below 10 measured firings, the win rate is rendered as “—” rather than a number that overstates confidence.

Resolution risk

A market is only as good as its resolution rule. Orrery surfaces resolution source and ambiguity on every market detail page.

  • The resolution source is extracted from the market description with a typed regex classifier — exchange price, official government release, court filing, sports result, social-media post, or ambiguous. Each carries a confidence label.
  • UMA dispute status is read directly from Gamma. An open dispute means price moves independent of underlying odds.
  • Resolution Watch on Home collects markets pinned at 0¢/100¢ or past their end date so the “biggest movers” list does not surface settled markets as opportunities.

Whales · Wallets · Flow

Every wallet is scored on five factors. Until a persistent snapshot store lands, the leaderboard is a recent-window view.

  • Whales — every $10k+ on-chain trade, newest first. Refreshes every 30s.
  • Wallets — quality-scored wallet leaderboard, seeded from recent whale activity. Quality blends open size, breadth across markets, ROI, closed-market win rate, and category specialisation.
  • Flow — same data, aggregated as a smart-money flow view by category.
  • Limit. Without a persistent snapshot store, the wallet leaderboard reflects the last ~hour of $5k+ trades, not all-time activity. That is being fixed in the next infra pass.

Watchlist · Alerts · Brief

The retention loop: capture, get notified, return.

  • Watchlist — markets you are tracking, with “since your last visit” probability deltas. Stored in your browser only.
  • Alerts — rule per market: probability cross, 24h move threshold, volume surge, or expiry approaching. Triggered alerts surface as banners on Home; email delivery ships next.
  • Daily Brief — one-page morning radar: biggest moves, unusual volume, smart-money flow, today's events, resolution risk. Shareable URL per day; email delivery in flight.

Where Orrery deliberately stays silent

The product principle is honest signal, not maximum coverage.

  • No trade recommendations, ever.
  • No prediction of outcomes.
  • No insider intelligence — every data source is public.
  • No score above the sample size justifies. Win rates with too few firings show “—”.
  • No filling in for missing data with synthetic content. If we don't have it, the panel says so.

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