Orrery Methodology

Methodology kit connected

The public page now renders from the vendored source model. Orrery owns layout; the kit owns doctrine order, formulas, caveats, FAQ, and source references.

compiled 2026-06-06 · contract 2026-06-06.1

Renderer contract

Methodology thesishero-thesis Read orderread-order Six doctrinesdoctrines Implementation snapshotimplementation-snapshot Research Priorityresearch-priority Wallet and large-trade flowwallet-flow Resolution and oracle riskresolution-risk Limitslimits FAQfaq Sourcessources

Engine boundary

100/100100/100

Methodology, signal interpretation, risk gates, autonomous governor/allocator contracts, and dry-run approvals are connectable. Runtime execution remains operator-gated in main Orrery.

Public methodologyread-only

Rendered from the vendored methodology kit; no runtime network or executor dependency.

Signal enveloperead-only

Live Orrery signals can be interpreted against the stable envelope without order placement or wallet signing.

Operator reviewdry-run audit

Order intents, approvals, would-send packets, and receipts can be displayed as audit artifacts only.

Paper executordry-run audit

Approved intents can be staged into paper fills before any supervised canary or live executor path is enabled.

Runtime submit locks6 LOCKED

Executor autostartFALSE

No app surface can start an unattended executor loop by itself.

Network sendFALSE

Venue network-submit packets remain paper or would-send evidence.

Raw secretsFALSE

Private-key/API-secret material is never loaded by methodology or UI.

Unattended live submitFALSE

Live order submission requires explicit operator enablement outside the library.

Policy expansionFALSE

Venue, market, account, and cap expansion stays locked behind signed operator policy.

Self-modifying strategyFALSE

Runtime decisions can be audited; strategies cannot rewrite their own mandate.

Signal envelope

Open signals Executor console

fairProbabilityread-only

Can be displayed when produced by the engine/model boundary; never becomes an order instruction by itself.

marketProbabilityread-only

Can mirror the observed market-implied YES probability on public signal surfaces.

edgeread-only

Can be interpreted as fairProbability minus marketProbability before governor vetoes and sizing caps.

confidenceread-only

Can show rule evidence strength from the deterministic public signal.

liquidityRiskread-only

Can be interpreted from liquidity and spread as context, not sizing guidance.

resolutionRiskread-only

Can surface status, source, expiry, and oracle caveats before price interpretation.

executionCostdry-run audit

Cost/slippage evidence can veto a decision and is first wired through paper receipts.

manipulationRiskread-only

Flow diagnostics can be surfaced as a governor veto input without sending orders.

Dry-run audit UINO SEND

Governor decisiondry-run audit

Records trade/no-trade plus stale, calibration, liquidity, manipulation, resolution, and cost vetoes.

autonomous decision governor

Allocator packetdry-run audit

Shows capped paper size by market, venue, outcome, theme, portfolio, drawdown, and correlated exposure.

autonomous capital exposure allocator

Pre-trade approval packetdry-run audit

Binds mandate, risk, kill-switch, reconciliation, exposure, and operator policy evidence.

autonomous trading approval boundary

Paper fill receiptdry-run audit

Transforms approved intent into simulated fills/rejects/slippage/PnL without venue network submit.

main Orrery paper executor

Supervision receiptdry-run audit

Tracks fills, rejects, partial fills, drift, stale data, cancel, flatten, and self-disable evidence.

autonomous supervision self-disable

Live submit receiptblocked

Receipt schema is visible for canary review; liveOrdersAllowed remains false until operator enablement.

executor enablement boundary

Next runtime gate: Main Orrery paper executor wiring. Readiness is complete; live submit stays behind the main Orrery operator boundary.

read-order

Read order

The headline probability is read only after status, source, quality, flow, deadline, and oracle state are visible.

Status

Is the market live, pending, disputed, resolved, or only rail-pinned?

Show canonical status before probability or signal language.

Orrery product bridgeResolution riskPrice as probability

Resolution source

Which source decides the outcome and how explicit is it?

Expose source type, confidence, URL or text, and matching rule when available.

Orrery product bridgeResolution risk

Market-implied probability

What probability is the venue implying right now?

Use market-implied probability; do not call it true probability.

Price as probability

Liquidity and spread

Is this price supported by depth, turnover, and a usable spread?

Treat liquidity, spread, and capacity as warnings and context.

Order-book market qualityThin book capacity

Flow

Did recent trades align, concentrate, or arrive from repeated wallets?

Call flow an observation; never call it proof of informed trading.

Order-book market qualityWallet flow methodology

Deadline

How close is the market to expiry or resolution?

Escalate near-expiry and expired-unresolved states before ranking opportunities.

Resolution riskBelief update loop

Oracle state

Is UMA or another mechanism pending, proposed, disputed, or already resolved?

Separate upstream resolved, UMA pending, UMA disputed, and rail-pinned states.

Resolution risk

doctrines

Six doctrines

These are the public guardrails that keep Orrery's interpretation layer observational.

Price is context, not truth

Prediction-market prices can summarize dispersed beliefs, but only under market-quality and resolution-source constraints.

Use market-implied probability and attach caveats when liquidity, spread, or source quality is weak.

Price as probabilityOrder-book market qualityResolution risk

Status before price

The same price means different things in live, near-expiry, pending, disputed, resolved, and rail-pinned states.

Status badges and warnings must appear before probability interpretation.

Resolution riskOrrery product bridge

Signals are observations

Momentum, divergence, flow, and resolution-risk signals describe what changed; they are not recommendations.

Signal cards should lead to source verification, timeline inspection, alerts, watch-only, or ignore actions.

Belief update loopOrder-book market qualityMarket scoring rules

Evidence is not edge

Live confidence, historical edge, aggregate edge, sample quality, and forward-only status are separate concepts.

Keep Evidence, Backtest, Action, sample tier, and forward-only labels visibly separate.

Market scoring rulesBelief update loop

Research Priority is attention ranking

Orrery can rank markets for inspection, but the score is not expected value and not a position-sizing rule.

Use Research Priority in public copy; treat edgeScore as an internal compatibility name.

Market scoring rulesThin book capacityOrrery product bridge

Agents need bounded next steps

A useful assistant says what to verify next and what remains uncertain, instead of declaring a trade conclusion.

Agent cards should include sources, freshness, warnings, and explicit next verification calls.

Belief update loopResolution riskOrrery product bridge

implementation-snapshot

Implementation snapshot

Formula and caveat snapshot audited against 2026-06-06. Stale-prone modules remain listed for drift review.

Momentum

snapshot

Fires when

absolute 24h price move is at least 3pp
liquidity is at least USD 25k
1h move is nonzero
1h and 24h moves have the same sign

Confidence

0.25 base
+ 0.35 * min(abs(24h_move) / 0.10, 1)
+ 0.25 * min((volume24h / liquidity) / 2, 1)
+ 0.10 when spread is below 4c
capped at 0.95

Static snapshot: mixed slice, weak aggregate, high sample.

Action: Verify the source, inspect the timeline, and watch whether the move persists.

Caveats

Momentum is not a trade call.
Thin books can exaggerate price movement.
Historical support is mixed, so live confidence is not edge.

Order-book market qualityBelief update loopMarket scoring rules

Divergence

snapshot

Fires when

absolute 1h price move is at least 1pp
liquidity is at least USD 50k
1h and 24h moves have opposite signs

Confidence

0.20 base
+ 0.40 * min(abs(1h_move) / 0.04, 1)
+ 0.25 * min(log10(liquidity) / 6, 1)
capped at 0.95

Static snapshot: mixed slice, weak aggregate, low sample.

Action: Inspect whether new information conflicts with the prior trend.

Caveats

Divergence can be noise, stale data, or a real update.
Low sample support should keep action language conservative.

Belief update loopOrder-book market qualityMarket scoring rules

Flow

forward-only

Fires when

at least 3 recent trades appear in the last 30 minutes
at least 3 recent trades align to the same direction
total recent trade-window USD value is at least USD 5k

Confidence

0.30 base
+ 0.35 * min(log10(total_usd) / 6, 1)
+ 0.25 * min(unique_wallets / 5, 1)
+ 0.10 * aligned_share
capped at 0.95

Forward-only until realized outcome data is accumulated.

Action: Monitor direction, concentration, wallet repetition, and source freshness.

Caveats

This is not three USD 5k trades; it is a total-window threshold.
Large flow is not proof of informed trading.
Direction-source quality must be audited before stronger language.

Order-book market qualityWallet flow methodology

Resolution risk

forward-only

Fires when

expiry is within roughly 72 hours
UMA status is present and not resolved
spread is above 6c
explicit or extracted resolution source is missing
source is ambiguous or a public-figure statement

Confidence

+ 0.40 from near expiry
+ 0.25 from unresolved UMA state
+ 0.15 from spread above 6c
+ 0.10 from missing source
+ 0.05 from ambiguous or public-figure source

Forward-only until labeled resolution outcomes and disputes are stored.

Action: Verify source wording, oracle state, expiry, and dispute risk before interpreting price.

Caveats

Resolution risk changes the meaning of the price.
Rail-pinned is not resolved.
Oracle pending and disputed states require separate language.

Resolution riskOrrery product bridge

News lag

forward-only

Fires when

external news or source evidence appears to precede market reaction
the market reaction remains incomplete or delayed

Confidence

forward-only until source/event matching is audited

Forward-only.

Action: Compare source timestamp, market timestamp, and reaction path.

Caveats

Requires careful source timestamping.
Should not be promoted without event-source provenance.

Belief update loopMarket scoring rules

Drift audit modules

status precedence or thresholds changeresolution source extraction rules changesignal firing thresholds or confidence formulas changecalibration sample tiers or action labels changeResearch Priority scoring changeswallet sample, concentration, or copy-risk language changespublic methodology copy changes

lib2-runtime-bridge

Lib_2 runtime bridge

The new corpus is exposed as read-only paper diagnostics: integrity, semantics, microstructure, execution markout, and thin-liquidity context.