Today in prediction markets
A morning control room for prediction markets: what moved, what deserves verification, and which markets are close enough to resolution that source quality matters more than price.
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Executive read
Sports is driving the largest 24h moves. 4 research observations are firing. 5 selected markets are inside the 72h resolution window.
Orrery does not recommend trades. Use this page as a ranked verification queue: inspect why a market moved, then confirm the source and resolution path.
Read first
3- 01Starmer out by June 30, 2026?momentum · -4.5pp in 24h · evidence highWatch only
- 02Iran closes its airspace by May 24?+10.0pp · $322.4K volume · 30¢ nowInspect
- 03LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs7h to end · May 18, 2026 · source check before closeVerify
Biggest probability moves
Largest 24h price changes on real volume.
- 01Iran closes its airspace by May 24?30¢ now · $322.4K volume+10.0pp
- 02Starmer out by June 30, 2026?62¢ now · $182.5K volume-4.5pp
- 03Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?13¢ now · $252.6K volume-4.0pp
- 04Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?63¢ now · $182.0K volume+4.0pp
- 05Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?4¢ now · $529.7K volume+2.0pp
Unusual volume
Turnover against available liquidity.
Research observations
Deterministic patterns firing right now. Treat them as research candidates, not entry signals.
- 01Momentum downStarmer out by June 30, 2026?Evidence highBacktest mixedWatch only
- 02Momentum upWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Evidence highBacktest mixedWatch only
- 03Momentum downWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Evidence highBacktest mixedWatch only
- 04Short-term vs. trend divergenceIran closes its airspace by May 24?Evidence mediumBacktest mixedInspect timeline
Secondary checks quiet
No one-sided wallet clustering and no event-clock pressure in this snapshot.
Resolution watch
Settlement timing, source verification, and UMA state.
Expiring <72h
5LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
7h to end · May 18, 2026
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?
9h to end · May 18, 2026
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?
12h to end · May 18, 2026
Spurs vs. Thunder
17h to end · May 19, 2026
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
29h to end · May 19, 2026
Past expiry
4Pinned rails
5Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
Pinned near YES · not officially settled
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Pinned near NO · not officially settled
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
Pinned near NO · not officially settled
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
Pinned near YES · not officially settled
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Pinned near NO · not officially settled