Today in prediction markets
A morning control room for prediction markets: what moved, what deserves verification, and which markets are close enough to resolution that source quality matters more than price.
Live edition
Executive read
Sports is driving the largest 24h moves. 4 research observations are firing. 5 selected markets are inside the 72h resolution window.
Orrery does not recommend trades. Use this page as a ranked verification queue: inspect why a market moved, then confirm the source and resolution path.
Biggest probability moves
Largest 24h price changes on real volume.
- 01Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel31¢ now · $283.9K volume-24.0pp
- 02Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?62¢ now · $1.1M volume-15.9pp
- 03Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?38¢ now · $1.0M volume+15.8pp
- 04Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?50¢ now · $781.2K volume+3.0pp
- 05US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?34¢ now · $186.2K volume+3.0pp
Research observations
Deterministic patterns firing right now. Treat them as research candidates, not entry signals.
- 01Momentum downWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Evidence highBacktest mixedWatch only
- 02Short-term vs. trend divergenceIsrael closes its airspace by June 15?Evidence mediumBacktest mixedInspect timeline
- 03Short-term vs. trend divergenceWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Evidence mediumBacktest mixedInspect timeline
- 04Short-term vs. trend divergencePhiladelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue JaysEvidence mediumBacktest mixedInspect timeline
Event clock
What ends soon enough to affect interpretation today.
Next 36h
1- 2hCounter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2Esports · $4.9M 24h vol
Next 7d
0Nothing in this window.
Resolution watch
Settlement timing, source verification, and UMA state.
Expiring <72h
5Past expiry
5Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp
Past expiry · verify UMA state
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
69h past end · UMA/source pending
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
69h past end · UMA/source pending
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
237h past end · UMA/source pending
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
285h past end · UMA/source pending
Pinned rails
5Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Pinned near NO · not officially settled
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Pinned near NO · not officially settled
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
Pinned near NO · not officially settled
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Pinned near NO · not officially settled
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Pinned near NO · not officially settled
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