The market moved
-2.0ppin 24h · now 1¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 21?
Weather · resolves May 21 · vol $237.32
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 27.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.