The market moved

-6.5ppin 24h · now 71¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

AI · resolves Jul 31 · vol $1.9K

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 71¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.