Will Mike McGuire win the CA-01 Special Election?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 15¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 26.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the winner of this election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the winner of this election — https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.