Will Paloma Valencia win between 20% and 25% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the share of valid votes paloma valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 colombian presidential election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the share of valid votes Paloma Valencia wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 12.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.