The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 59¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?
Geopolitics · resolves May 22 · vol $15.85
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 59¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on cnbc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: cnbc — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/kevin-warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair.html).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.