Will Trump say "Recession" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 20¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 19.5pp shift. Resolution depends on cnbc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: cnbc — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/kevin-warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair.html).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 24.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.