The market moved
-34.0ppin 24h · now 21¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?
Politics · resolves May 22 · vol $45.31
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 21¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 34.0pp shift. Resolution depends on cnbc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: cnbc — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/kevin-warsh-trump-federal-reserve-chair.html).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 25.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.