Resolves in 5h — verify the source
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Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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Resolves in 5h — verify the source
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Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
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UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 78/98 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 66/91 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 60/92 98/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? probability down 11.5pp on $0.7M of 24h volume.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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