Signals

Live Signal Feed

Deterministic rules over live market and trade data. Every firing shows the factors that fed its confidence score.

Flow0Momentum10Divergence5Resolution Risk97

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Gamma·Polymarket Data

All active signals · ranked by confidence

112

Signal	Market	Evidence	Confidence
Momentum up Momentum	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Other	Probability moved up 36.0pp in 24h with 12.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ 36.0pp, 1h Δ 41.0pp Turnover 12.0× liquidity Spread 1.0¢	HIGH 95
Momentum down Momentum	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Other	Probability moved down 50.4pp in 24h with 2.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ -50.4pp, 1h Δ -0.4pp Turnover 2.9× liquidity Spread 0.1¢	HIGH 95
Momentum up Momentum	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Other	Probability moved up 25.5pp in 24h with 19.5× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ 25.5pp, 1h Δ 2.5pp Turnover 19.5× liquidity Spread 2.0¢	HIGH 95
Momentum down Momentum	Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Other	Probability moved down 13.0pp in 24h with 15.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ -13.0pp, 1h Δ -4.0pp Turnover 15.9× liquidity Spread 1.0¢	HIGH 95
Momentum up Momentum	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Other	Probability moved up 31.0pp in 24h with 8.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ 31.0pp, 1h Δ 4.5pp Turnover 8.9× liquidity Spread 3.0¢	HIGH 95
Momentum down Momentum	Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Other	Probability moved down 39.5pp in 24h with 2.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ -39.5pp, 1h Δ -2.4pp Turnover 2.0× liquidity Spread 0.1¢	HIGH 95
Momentum down Momentum	Madrid Open: Andrey Rublev vs Vit Kopriva Other	Probability moved down 61.5pp in 24h with 2.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ -61.5pp, 1h Δ -61.0pp Turnover 2.8× liquidity Spread 1.0¢	HIGH 95
Momentum down Momentum	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Other	Probability moved down 12.1pp in 24h with 10.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ -12.1pp, 1h Δ -1.5pp Turnover 10.9× liquidity Spread 0.4¢	HIGH 95
Momentum down Momentum	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? Other	Probability moved down 5.0pp in 24h with 15.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ -5.0pp, 1h Δ -0.6pp Turnover 15.7× liquidity Spread 0.7¢	HIGH 78
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed No explicit resolution source	HIGH 75
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed No explicit resolution source	HIGH 75
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed No explicit resolution source	HIGH 75
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed No explicit resolution source	HIGH 75
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed No explicit resolution source	HIGH 75
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed No explicit resolution source	HIGH 75
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 24? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed No explicit resolution source	HIGH 75
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Other	Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 2h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Other	Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 2h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Other	Expires in 3h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 3h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Other	Expires in 4h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 4h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -1h UMA status: proposed	MEDIUM 65
Short-term vs. trend divergence Divergence	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Other	Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -2.5pp vs. 24h +31.0pp. 24h Δ 31.0pp 1h Δ -2.5pp Liquidity $61k	MEDIUM 65
Short-term vs. trend divergence Divergence	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? Other	Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +2.0pp vs. 24h -5.5pp. 24h Δ -5.5pp 1h Δ 2.0pp Liquidity $85k	MEDIUM 61
Short-term vs. trend divergence Divergence	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Other	Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.5pp vs. 24h -1.0pp. 24h Δ -1.0pp 1h Δ 1.5pp Liquidity $246k	MEDIUM 57
Short-term vs. trend divergence Divergence	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Other	Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.0pp vs. 24h +2.0pp. 24h Δ 2.0pp 1h Δ -1.0pp Liquidity $1590k	MEDIUM 55
Short-term vs. trend divergence Divergence	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Other	Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -5.0pp. 24h Δ -5.0pp 1h Δ 1.0pp Liquidity $222k	MEDIUM 52
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -41h No explicit resolution source	MEDIUM 50
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -17h No explicit resolution source	MEDIUM 50
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. Expires in -17h No explicit resolution source	MEDIUM 50
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Other	Expires in 7h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 7h No explicit resolution source	MEDIUM 50
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Other	Expires in 31h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 31h No explicit resolution source	MEDIUM 50
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Other	Expires in 7h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 7h No explicit resolution source	MEDIUM 50
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Other	Expires in 55h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 55h No explicit resolution source	MEDIUM 50
Momentum down Momentum	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Other	Probability moved down 3.0pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread. 24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp Turnover 0.3× liquidity Spread 1.0¢	MEDIUM 50
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Other	Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 9h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Other	Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 2h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Lakers vs. Rockets Other	Expires in 7h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 7h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Other	Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 2h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Other	Expires in 6h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 6h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Other	Expires in 6h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 6h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Other	Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 2h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Other	Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity. Expires in 9h	LOW 40
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. UMA status: disputed No explicit resolution source	LOW 35
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. UMA status: disputed No explicit resolution source	LOW 35
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Other	Expires in 487h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: disputed No explicit resolution source	LOW 35
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: disputed No explicit resolution source	LOW 35
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. UMA status: disputed No explicit resolution source	LOW 35
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Other	Expires in 1591h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: disputed No explicit resolution source	LOW 35
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Other	Expires in 160h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: proposed	LOW 25
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Other	Expires in 160h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: proposed	LOW 25
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Other	Expires in 160h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: proposed	LOW 25
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Other	Expires in 135h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: proposed	LOW 25
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo Other	Expires in 160h with open resolution ambiguity. UMA status: proposed	LOW 25
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Other	Expires in 1619h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Other	Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Other	Expires in 871h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Other	Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Other	Expires in 4543h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Other	Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Other	Expires in 871h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Other	Expires in 4543h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Other	Expires in 6007h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Other	Expires in 1039h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? Other	Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Other	Expires in 5407h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Other	Expires in 1603h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Other	Expires in 151h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Other	Expires in 22255h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Other	Expires in 4543h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Other	Expires in 1039h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Other	Expires in 871h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Other	Expires in 151h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Other	Expires in 871h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Other	Expires in 1591h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Other	Expires in 8191h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Other	Expires in 22255h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Other	Expires in 79h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Other	Expires in 2071h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Other	Expires in 6007h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Other	Expires in 1039h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Other	Expires in 1615h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Other	Expires in 871h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Trump out as President by April 30? Other	Expires in 127h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Other	Expires in 22255h with open resolution ambiguity. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10
Resolution risk Resolution Risk	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Other	Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window. No explicit resolution source	LOW 10