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5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
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Full research queue Verify source and settlement before reading price moves as info
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Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
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RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 77/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 78/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 76/81 76/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 71/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 74 | 92/76 32/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 18.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 92% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27? resolves in 6h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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