Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
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5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26?
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
2Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -10.0pp, 1h Δ -3.0pp · Turnover 4.1× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -8.5pp, 1h Δ -5.5pp · Turnover 6.3× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -7.5pp, 1h Δ -6.0pp · Turnover 2.1× liquidity
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
24h Δ 4.3pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 11.8× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
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New York Yankees vs. Kansas City RoyalsPAST EVENT
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Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsPAST EVENT
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Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysPAST EVENT
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Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxPAST EVENT
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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPAST EVENT
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesPAST EVENT
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Avalanche vs. Golden KnightsPAST EVENT
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Spurs vs. ThunderPAST EVENT
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Spread: Thunder (-2.5)PAST EVENT
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Spread: Thunder (-5.5)PAST EVENT
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Spread: Thunder (-4.5)PAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/96 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 90/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 86/86 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 75/76 84/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 27, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 10.5pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31? resolves in 96h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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RISK INCREASED (1)
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