Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
2Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Spurs vs. Thunder
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
4Avalanche vs. Golden Knights
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
5Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
16% 12.0pp
24h volume
$328.1K
Orrery Pulse16% current4-34% 7D range+6.3pp net move
42%31%21%10%0%
16%
May 2616%+6.3pp from start
May 19May 20May 21May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Top read
24h Δ -12.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.1× liquidity
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
24h Δ -12.0pp, 1h Δ -2.8pp · Turnover 5.0× liquidity
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -4.9pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.7× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -7.5pp · 1h Δ 3.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -14.5pp · 1h Δ 2.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -2.0pp · 1h Δ 1.5pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
—
—
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/80 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 77/86 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 72/86 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 77 | 64/95 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? probability down 20.6pp on $0.7M of 24h volume.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27? resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (3)
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.