High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 28h — verify the source
Verify
4Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Resolves in 56h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy PaulHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
42% 29.0pp
24h volume
$1.3M
Orrery Pulse43% current43-75% 7D range-23.5pp net move
80%69%59%48%37%
43%
May 2943%-23.5pp from start
May 27May 28May 28May 28May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -18.0pp · Turnover 22.9× liquidity
2Open
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?
24h Δ 7.0pp, 1h Δ 3.1pp · Turnover 3.4× liquidity
4Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 5.1× liquidity
5Open
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ 3.4pp, 1h Δ 0.4pp · Turnover 1.9× liquidity
6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 1.6× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 85/81 94/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 70/89 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/82 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 78 | 71/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 65/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul probability down 29.0pp on $1.3M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 85% evidence — verify on the market.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.