High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 53h — verify the source
Verify
3US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
4US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 25h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
84% 27.0pp
24h volume
$1.6M
Orrery Pulse100% current69-100% 7D range+31.0pp net move
100%89%79%68%58%
100%
May 29100%+31.0pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 21.7pp, 1h Δ 2.8pp · Turnover 5.1× liquidity
4Open
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?
24h Δ 5.2pp, 1h Δ 0.2pp · Turnover 3.0× liquidity
5Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -5.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 4.8× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy PaulUMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/81 88/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 78/84 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 78/82 82/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds probability up 27.0pp on $1.6M of 24h volume.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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