High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 24h — verify the source
Verify
2US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 24h — verify the source
Verify
4Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 24h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
28% 23.0pp
24h volume
$592.7K
Orrery Pulse100% current50-100% 7D range+49.5pp net move
100%83%66%50%33%
100%
May 29100%+49.5pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ -7.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.0× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/76 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/76 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 91/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians probability down 36.0pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes resolves in 0h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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