High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?
Resolves in 58h — verify the source
Verify
3Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
Resolves in 58h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 30h — verify the source
Verify
5Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub MensikHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
37% 39.5pp
24h volume
$862.4K
Orrery Pulse43% current43-79% 7D range-7.5pp net move
85%73%61%48%36%
43%
May 2943%-7.5pp from start
May 28May 28May 28May 29May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de JongTop read
24h Δ -58.0pp, 1h Δ -56.0pp · Turnover 23.9× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik
24h Δ -39.5pp, 1h Δ -46.5pp · Turnover 8.7× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul
24h Δ -18.5pp, 1h Δ -22.5pp · Turnover 4.9× liquidity
6Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ 5.0pp, 1h Δ 1.5pp · Turnover 3.1× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 80/82 96/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 83 | 95/83 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 95/83 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 80/80 92/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong probability down 58.0pp on $1.3M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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