Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
2US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 60h — verify the source
Verify
3Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner TienHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
61% 34.0pp
24h volume
$388.2K
Orrery Pulse61% current46-74% 7D range+12.0pp net move
79%69%60%50%40%
61%
May 2861%+12.0pp from start
May 27May 27May 27May 27May 28May 28May 28May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Top read
24h Δ -13.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 4.3× liquidity
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame
24h Δ -38.0pp, 1h Δ -28.0pp · Turnover 10.0× liquidity
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien
24h Δ 34.0pp, 1h Δ 38.0pp · Turnover 8.0× liquidity
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
24h Δ 11.6pp, 1h Δ 0.3pp · Turnover 4.6× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -8.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 1.5× liquidity
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton
24h Δ 38.0pp · 1h Δ -3.0pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma NavarroUMA PENDING
High
—
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/77 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 95/81 66/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 81/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame probability down 38.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? resolves in 4h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.