Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
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5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
4Spurs vs. Thunder
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
5Avalanche vs. Golden Knights
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
18% 8.2pp
24h volume
$372.0K
Orrery Pulse33% current33-44% 7D range-10.5pp net move
47%43%39%34%30%
33%
May 2633%-10.5pp from start
May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -8.2pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 9.5× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
24h Δ 6.5pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 2.0× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -3.0pp · 1h Δ 4.0pp
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
24h Δ -4.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 2.3× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -3.0pp · 1h Δ 2.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -9.0pp · 1h Δ 1.0pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
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Medium
Medium
Medium
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Medium
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Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 81/83 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 81 | 74/94 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 89/77 58/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 82/86 60/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 63/94 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? probability down 9.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 89% evidence — verify on the market.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 27? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (3)
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