Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
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Resolves in 5h — verify the source
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Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
36% 11.5pp
24h volume
$3.7M
Orrery Pulse21% current20-21% 7D range+0.0pp net move
29%25%21%16%12%
21%
May 2521%+0.0pp from start
May 25May 25May 25May 25May 25May 25May 25May 25
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 83/90 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 80 | 80/80 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 80 | 80/80 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 79 | 82/88 60/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 78 | 71/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 25, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? probability down 61.1pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a divergence pattern at 83% evidence — verify on the market.
- Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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