Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
13% 10.0pp
24h volume
$440.2K
Orrery Pulse33% current32-34% 7D range-1.5pp net move
41%37%33%29%24%
33%
May 2633%-1.5pp from start
May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26May 26
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 95/81 92/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/76 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 71/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 73 | 54/95 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 70 | 52/86 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 26, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 19.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
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