High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 24h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 24h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
33% 19.0pp
24h volume
$604.4K
Orrery Pulse1% current1-1% 7D range+0.2pp net move
17%13%9%4%0%
1%
May 291%+0.2pp from start
May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 6Open
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ 20.0pp, 1h Δ 2.0pp · Turnover 6.5× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/79 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/76 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 29, 2026
Read full brief - Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians probability down 40.0pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes resolves in 0h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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