Prediction-market verification guides
Orrery’s moat is not generic market education. These guides teach the trust loops that matter: source status, settlement path, wallet context, and venue comparability.
Resolution
Price is not settlement
Why prediction-market prices can look final before official resolution, and how to verify source, expiry, UMA state, and settlement path.
Large Trades
Large trade is not smart money
How to read large Polymarket trades without treating size as skill, and what wallet sample, timing, liquidity, and resolution context to check first.
Cross-venue
Same event is not same contract
Why Polymarket and Kalshi markets that sound similar may not be directly comparable, and how to compare wording, source rules, expiry, and settlement paths.
Resolution
Polymarket resolution risk
A practical guide to Polymarket resolution risk: source wording, UMA status, expiry, rail-pinned prices, disputes, and what to verify next.
Cross-venue
Polymarket vs Kalshi resolution rules
How to compare Polymarket and Kalshi markets by event wording, source, expiry, liquidity, settlement mechanics, and resolution-risk state.
Orrery’s SEO rule
trust pagesThese are not “best bets” pages. They compound around the language Orrery should own: price is not settlement, large trade is not smart money, and same event is not same contract.