Set Handicap: Acosta (-2.5) vs Zhang (+2.5)
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+71.5pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$11.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 71pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $11.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 1, 09:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 138.4h
- 14:33SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+71.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +73.0pp at 14:33 (to 100¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 14:33 · +73.0pp → 100¢
- 13:00 · +23.0pp → 50¢
- 12:00 · +23.0pp → 50¢
- 21:00 · +3.5pp → 29¢
- 20:00 · -21.5pp → 29¢
- 18:00 · -21.0pp → 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Zhizhen Zhang in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for May 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Acosta" if Facundo Acosta wins by 3 or more sets than Zhizhen Zhang, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Zhang." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
roland garrosReason
Roland Garros — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Acosta (-2.5) vs Zhang (+2.5)"?
As of Tue, 26 May 2026 14:33:20 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +71.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 1, 2026 (2026-06-01T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$5.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.