Lorenzo Sonego vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+59.0pp
24h Vol
$325.99
Liquidity
$16.3K
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 59pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $16.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 04UMA status
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 133.1h
- 18:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+59.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +74.0pp at 18:00 (to 100¢).
Show 5 hourly moves
- 18:00 · +74.0pp → 100¢
- 16:00 · +24.5pp → 50¢
- 15:00 · -10.0pp → 40¢
- 13:00 · -10.5pp → 40¢
- 12:00 · -10.5pp → 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Mattia Bellucci in the Cagliari, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Alerts
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